How much should you raise menu prices? Work it out per dish

Don't pick one percentage for the whole menu. Re-cost each dish on this week's invoices and price it at plate cost ÷ your target food cost %, so each dish rises only as far as its own costs need. Then check the raise against your guest count: in the example below, a 5% rise in the average check still pays as long as fewer than 7 in every 100 covers stay away.

The national figure isn't your number

Prices around you are still rising. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for food away from home, which tracks the prices of meals and snacks bought away from home, mostly at restaurants, rose 3.4% over the 12 months to August 2026, according to its August 2026 release of September 11, 2026. That's an average over every kind of place and dish, not the raise your menu needs.

Big jumps also come with a warning sign. The James Beard Foundation's 2026 Independent Restaurant Industry Report surveyed more than 380 independent owners, chefs and operators from September to November 2025. When it released the report on February 23, 2026, the Foundation said restaurants that had raised menu prices by more than 10% were the most likely to say their profits were down and to expect fewer guests. A survey shows a link, not cause and effect, but it's a reason to go dish by dish.

Work out each dish's raise from its plate cost

A flat raise overcharges for dishes whose costs held still and undercharges for the ones whose costs jumped. Instead, re-cost each plate on this week's invoices, work out its food cost % (plate cost ÷ menu price), and compare it with your target for that dish.

There's also a floor: the dollars the plate cost went up. For the burger that's $0.30, a price of $15.30, which keeps the $10.50 a plate it left before. Below the floor, a dish earns less on every plate than it did before its costs rose. Then decide:

• At or below target: leave the price alone. Its own costs don't call for a raise.
• 10% or less to reach target: take it in one step, rounded up to a price that fits your menu.
• More than 10% to reach target: raise at least to the floor now. Close the rest by changing the plate (portion, side, garnish or a cheaper cut), or at your next menu change. If even the floor is more than 10%, change the plate first.

The 10% line follows the James Beard finding above. Plate cost only covers food: if wages rose too, check your prime cost. For costing a plate step by step, see plate cost in our food cost guide.

How many guests you can lose before a raise costs you

A raise brings in more on every check, but each guest who stops coming takes their whole check with them. The raise pays as long as the share of covers you lose stays under this line:

If only some dishes go up, p is smaller than their raises: it's the extra sales the new prices would have brought on last month's product mix, divided by last month's sales. Card fees come off the top because they rise with the check. If you sell through delivery apps, take their commissions off the same way.

Here's why it works. Say you serve N covers, the average check brings in P after card fees, and each cover leaves C once its food, drink and packaging are paid, so c = C ÷ P. A raise of p adds p × P to every check, while the food on it costs the same.

Where to raise first, and what to watch afterwards

Start with the dishes where the cost rise costs you the most dollars: the rise per plate times the number sold last month, from your POS product mix report. For example, a $0.30 rise on a burger that sold 600 last month costs $180 a month, while a $1.00 rise on a special that sold 100 costs $100. Fix the burger first.

Once the new prices are live, pull covers and average check from your POS every week for at least 4 weeks. Compare each with the same weeks last year, or with the 4 weeks before the change if last year isn't comparable.

• Covers: measure the change against the gap you were already running. If you were 2% behind last year before the raise and 6% behind after it, the raise cost you about 4% of covers.
• Average check: it should rise by about p. If it rose less, guests may be trading down or skipping extras, so redo the line with the rise you actually got.
• The call: if covers fell by less than your line, keep the new prices. If they fell by more for 4 weeks running, roll back the raises on the dishes whose sales fell most, and work on their plate cost instead.

This week

1. 01Re-cost your 10 best sellers by Friday. Pull last month's product mix report from your POS, price each dish from this week's invoices, and flag every dish above its target food cost.
2. 02Work out your line. From last month's P&L, card processing statement and POS covers, work out c. Then work out p ÷ (c + p) for the raise you're planning, and turn it into covers a week.
3. 03Set your baseline before the new menu goes live. Write down weekly covers and average check from your POS for the last 4 weeks and the same 4 weeks last year.